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Ceasefire in Ukraine

A ceasefire was called in Ukraine last Friday, when the Ukrainian government and separatist leaders agreed to stop conflict that has left 2,200 people dead since April. While this is not the first attempt at a ceasefire agreement between the two groups, it is the first time that Russian president Vladimir Putin actively endorsed this action. His endorsement revolved around a 7-part peace plan that he had laid out two days earlier.

Jared CramIn spite of this, Putin has still been under heavy scrutiny by Western leaders for what they believe to be suspicious political motives in Russian involvement with Ukraine. In spite of this skepticism, Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko expressed cautious optimism about the cease-fire. In a White House press conference following the recent North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Wales, President Obama spoke to the Associated Press saying he remained “hopeful but, based on past experience, also skeptical” about the strength of this ceasefire.

For now, the focus of the U.S., and other members of NATO have been to support Ukraine in its endeavors, without directly supplying weaponry or allowing the Ukraine to join the treaty organization. In an interview with Time magazine, president of the Atlantic Council of Ukraine, Vadim Grechaninov, stated that he is disappointed, but not surprised. If Ukraine were to be accepted into NATO every member of the organization would be bound to protect Ukraine in this conflict. Many of the allies are hesitant to involve themselves in that type of confrontation with Russia, who is armed with nuclear weapons.

However, NATO has attempted to provide some support for Ukrainian people in a few ways. During the NATO summit in Wales, the five most powerful nations in the organization met with Poroshenko to discuss the conflict with Russia, and collectively pledged $16 million dollars in trust funds to help modernize the Ukrainian military. The most influential tactic used by NATO members, however, are the sanctions against trade with Russia. A CNN article wrote that the European Union, in addition to their current sanctions against any arms or dual-purpose items, is looking to restrict capital investments with Russia within their union, as well as sensitive technologies and certain energy-related equipment.

In his interview, Grechaninov recognizes the actions taken by members of NATO to help restore peace to the region, but doesn’t believe they are sufficient. “Putin can only be stopped by a force greater than his,” he said. “We waited for this force from NATO, and they have it. They can stop Putin. But right now they don’t consider it. “President Obama has a different opinion on the impact that NATO has had in the Ukrainian conflict. During his White House press conference, he stated that the only reason that Russia was agreeing to a ceasefire is because of the impact that current sanctions, as well as threat of future sanctions will have on the Russian economy.

The future remains unclear in Ukraine as current world leaders are still cautious about the stability and strength of the current ceasefire between the two groups. A diplomatic solution cannot currently be reached, as many separatists are divided on their goals for the conflict. In response to the future, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk told the New York Times that lasting peace would only come about in response to three things: a long term cease fire, a withdrawal of the Russian army, and a wall along the border. According to CNN, the last unilateral ceasefire declared by the Ukrainian government in June broke down after ten days.